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Cognitive Bias in Intelligence AnalysisTesting the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method$
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Martha Whitesmith

Print publication date: 2020

Print ISBN-13: 9781474466349

Published to Edinburgh Scholarship Online: May 2021

DOI: 10.3366/edinburgh/9781474466349.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM EDINBURGH SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.edinburgh.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Edinburgh University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in ESO for personal use.date: 28 July 2021

Predicting Confirmation Bias

Predicting Confirmation Bias

Chapter:
(p.184) 5 Predicting Confirmation Bias
Source:
Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
Author(s):

Martha Whitesmith

Publisher:
Edinburgh University Press
DOI:10.3366/edinburgh/9781474466349.003.0006

Chapter five provides details of the meta-analyses into confirmation bias. It will show that the analytical conditions of diagnostic weighting of initial information, consistency of information, hypothesis testing instructions and type of information likely have an impact on confirmation bias. It will also show that the results undermine key assumptions in predominant predictions models the inability to identify diagnostic value of information theory concerning confirmation bias (Koslowski and Maqueda 1993, and Kuhn et al. 1988). The chapter proposes alternative models for predicting serial position effects and confirmation bias. These models argue that whilst the risk of occurrence of serial position effects and confirmation bias are impacted by different analytical conditions, they share an underlying cognitive process: a force towards forming a focal hypothesis early on in belief acquisition.

Keywords:   Confirmation Bias

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