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Cognitive Bias in Intelligence AnalysisTesting the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method$
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Martha Whitesmith

Print publication date: 2020

Print ISBN-13: 9781474466349

Published to Edinburgh Scholarship Online: May 2021

DOI: 10.3366/edinburgh/9781474466349.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM EDINBURGH SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.edinburgh.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Edinburgh University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in ESO for personal use.date: 26 September 2021

Predicting Serial Position Effects1

Predicting Serial Position Effects1

(p.145) 4 Predicting Serial Position Effects1
Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

Martha Whitesmith

Edinburgh University Press

Chapter four provides details of a meta-analysis conducted into serial position effects. The meta-analysis also identified whether there are any significant differences in the proportion of bias under different analytical conditions between belief adjustment conducted in an intelligence scenario and belief adjustment conducted in non-intelligence scenarios. The chapter argues that there is no compelling evidential basis to suggest that serial position effects or confirmation bias affect intelligence analysis differently from non-intelligence analysis. It will show that the analytical conditions of volume of information, reliance on recall, accountability and type of information likely have an impact on serial position effects. The results undermine key assumptions in predominant predictions models. This includes the belief-adjustment model for serial position effects (Hogarth and Einhorn 1992).

Keywords:   Serial Position Effects, Serial Order Effects, Belief Adjustment Model (BAM)

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