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Cognitive Bias in Intelligence AnalysisTesting the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method$
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Martha Whitesmith

Print publication date: 2020

Print ISBN-13: 9781474466349

Published to Edinburgh Scholarship Online: May 2021

DOI: 10.3366/edinburgh/9781474466349.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM EDINBURGH SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.edinburgh.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Edinburgh University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in ESO for personal use.date: 27 July 2021

The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario1

The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario1

Chapter:
(p.107) 3 The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario1
Source:
Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
Author(s):

Martha Whitesmith

Publisher:
Edinburgh University Press
DOI:10.3366/edinburgh/9781474466349.003.0004

Chapter three provides details of an experimental study conducted in 2016 to provide an evaluation of the efficacy of ACH in mitigating the cognitive biases of serial position effects and confirmation bias using the scoring systems of credibility of information and diagnostic value of information. The study is based on a disguised version of the intelligence case for both the biological and nuclear weapons capabilities of Saddam Hussein’s regime that was used to support the US decision to invade Iraq in 2003. The study shows that the version of ACH taught by the PHIA to the UK’s intelligence community between 2016-2017 has no statistically significant mitigating effect on the occurrence of serial position effects or confirmation bias.

Keywords:   Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), serial position effects (SPE), confirmation bias

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