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Cognitive Bias in Intelligence AnalysisTesting the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method$
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Martha Whitesmith

Print publication date: 2020

Print ISBN-13: 9781474466349

Published to Edinburgh Scholarship Online: May 2021

DOI: 10.3366/edinburgh/9781474466349.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM EDINBURGH SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.edinburgh.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Edinburgh University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in ESO for personal use.date: 01 August 2021

The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive Bias

The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive Bias

Chapter:
(p.61) 2 The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive Bias
Source:
Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
Author(s):

Martha Whitesmith

Publisher:
Edinburgh University Press
DOI:10.3366/edinburgh/9781474466349.003.0003

The chapter examines the ability of current versions of the structured analytical technique, assessment of competing hypotheses (ACH) to provide theoretically valid methodologies for establishing justified beliefs in intelligence analysis, to cope with the higher risk of epistemic complexity in intelligence analysis, and to mitigate or reduce cognitive bias. It argues that no current version of ACH provides a theoretically valid mechanism to establish justification for beliefs, or to cope with epistemic complexity, but that the method can be adapted to do so. It also argues that no current version of ACH provides a theoretically valid mechanism to mitigate the risk of cognitive bias, but that the method could be adapted to make the occurrence of some cognitive biases visible to peer review.

Keywords:   Epistemic justification, cognitive bias, structured analytical techniques

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