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The Problem of Secret Intelligence - Edinburgh Scholarship Online
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The Problem of Secret Intelligence

Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke


Why is intelligence so hard to define? Why is there no systematic or adequate theory of intelligence? This book argues that classic intelligence production has been premised on an ill-founded belief in an automatic inference between history and the future, and that the lack of a working theory has exacerbated this problem. The book uses classic cases of intelligence failure to demonstrate how this problem creates a restricted language in intelligence communities that undermines threat perception. From these cases it concludes that intelligence needs to be re-thought, and argues that good intel ... More

Keywords: Intelligence Theory, Analysis, Secrecy, Critical Rationalism, Estimation, Induction, Intuition, Power, Wisdom, Logic

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2019 Print ISBN-13: 9780748691838
Published to Edinburgh Scholarship Online: January 2020 DOI:10.3366/edinburgh/9780748691838.001.0001


Affiliations are at time of print publication.

Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke, author
Norwegian Defence Intelligence School

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Part I Critical Thinking and Intelligence

Part II Complexity, Secrecy and Intelligence Tribal Language

Part III The Case of 9/11: A Theoretical and Reflective Analysis

End Matter